In spy games, fury has no coin | The Australian

AS POSTED HERE ... In spy games, fury has no coin | The Australian

THE Rudd government's expulsion of the Israeli embassy's resident Mossad agent has been greeted with local indignation and muted acceptance in Israel. But in the intelligence world, any fallout from the fake passports affair could be short-lived.

Despite tough talk on Monday that Israel's actions were not those of a friend, Minister for Foreign Affairs Stephen Smith knows all too well that neither country can afford to have sour diplomatic relations. Security analysts and intelligence experts tell The Australian that the ever-cautious Smith can even take some comfort.

After weighing up the diplomatic fallout, Mossad hit teams and their political masters in Jerusalem are unlikely to be using Australian passports when they next decide to liquidate another Hamas terrorist.

The Netanyahu government has decided it will not embark on a running commentary in response to the expulsion but the decision of ambassador Yuval Rotem to cut short his stay in Israel and return to Canberra immediately underscores the fact Jerusalem does have concerns.


RELATED COVERAGE
Bishop attacked on spy claims
The Australian, 9 hours ago
Australia has forged passports: Bishop
The Australian, 15 hours ago
Passport to a major diplomatic breach
Adelaide Now, 1 day ago
Israel 'faked Aussie passports'
Adelaide Now, 1 day ago
Mossad's man in Canberra has to go
The Australian, 1 day ago

It was a theme reinforced by Yossi Melman, the widely respected intelligence and military affairs correspondent for Israeli newspaper Haaretz, who says while the misuse of Australian passports has caused diplomatic problems between Australia and the Jewish state, damage on the intelligence front will likely be limited.

"You know in these kinds of spy games and in this kind of shadow world, not everything that we see on the surface is the reality underneath," Melman says.

"I know that the Australian government, and rightly so, is very unhappy about using Australian passports, but on the other hand I'm sure that between intelligence organisations there is a greater understanding that such operations are a necessity from time to time," Melman told ABC's Lateline on Monday.

This curious spat has its origins five months ago. But it has been exacerbated by Australian claims of an alleged breach of a confidential undertaking given years earlier.

It began on January 20 with the discovery of the body of a leading Palestinian militant, Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, in his room at a luxury Dubai hotel.

After some initial confusion over cause of death some smart police work in Dubai determined that the Palestinian militant had been murdered: injected with a muscle relaxant and then suffocated.

Vision obtained from hotel security cameras pointed to the involvement of a team of assassins and the finger of blame was quickly pointed at Israel's spy agency, Mossad. Israel has never denied the charge.

At first it appeared just like any of the other Israeli anti-terrorist assassinations; there have been at least 40 during the past 50 years, according to Melman.

But the Dubai hit became complicated with the discovery al-Mabhouh's killers were travelling on forged British, Irish, Canadian, German and Australian passports. Significantly, no US passports were involved.

When Dubai authorities contacted Canberra asking for information on the details of four Australian passports linked to the murder, alarm bells rang.

The Australian Federal Police was called in, as were the two key national intelligence agencies, the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation and its overseas counterpart, the Australian Secret Intelligence Service. Their findings confirmed what everyone suspected. And while it stopped short of confirming a state-sanctioned hit by Mossad, it did finger Israel for passport misuse.

The potential for prolonged diplomatic damage should not be overstated. While Canberra gains some benefit from intelligence sharing with Israel - mostly involving developments in Lebanon - formal agreements with allies, all of whom maintain links with their Israeli counterparts, mean it is highly unlikely Australia will be cut out of the intelligence loop.

"The major source of Australia's intelligence is through the ABCA [America, Britain, Canada, Australia] countries and anything of critical interest to both countries [Israel and Australia] will be passed on regardless of this affair," an Australian security analyst with extensive Middle East experience says.

"Australia's reliance on Israeli intelligence sourcing is almost negligible and anything of criticality will come through other sources. I don't see this as being a big intelligence problem at all."

Asked how critical any interruption would be on intelligence sharing between Canberra and Tel Aviv, the analyst replied: "Not much. I've worked at the levels where I would see it and there is nothing much of any note.

"We might give them some stuff on JI [Jemaah Islamiyah] but they [Israel] would get it through the Americans, the Brits, the Canadians, even the Singaporeans: they have very close links with Israel."

It all highlights the difficulties for the Rudd government in shaping an appropriate response.

In his ministerial statement on Monday, Smith said no government can tolerate the abuse of

its passports, a clear affront to

the security of the passport system.

"These investigations and advice have left the government in no doubt that Israel was responsible for the abuse and counterfeiting of these passports.

"I note that a similar conclusion was reached by the United Kingdom government in the course of their official investigations," Smith said.

Israel's actions were not the actions of a friend, Smith added.

Australia's bipartisan support for Israel goes back to the creation of the country in 1948.

What rankles with Smith seems not so much the murder of al-Mabhouh, but a breach of a confidential undertaking given to Australia years earlier during the Howard government.

"The Dubai passports incident also constitutes a clear and direct breach of confidential understandings between Australia and Israel dating back some years," he said.

According to former foreign minister Alexander Downer, that involved a promise by Israel its Mossad operatives would not misuse Australian passports after a bungled 2003 attempt to clone Australian and New Zealand identities, an incident more worthy of the Keystone Kops than a crack spy organisation.

In July 2004 New Zealand imposed diplomatic sanctions on Israel over an incident in which two Israeli citizens living in Sydney attempted to fraudulently obtain NZ passports by claiming the identity of a disabled man.

Their attempt to mimic a NZ accent gave them away.

An alert Kiwi immigration official alerted the country's security agency, resulting in arrests and six-month jail terms for both men. Two other agents are believed to have escaped.

In a new twist, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday one of the Dubai suspects is believed to have been involved in that case.

So far the Israeli response has been muted; Tel Aviv, it seems, does not want to give the matter any oxygen.

Israel's Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor would only say: "We regret the Australian decision, which is not in line with the quality and the importance of our relationship."

Netanyahu has refrained from commenting, with the only minister so far to make any comment being Dan Meridor, Deputy PM and Minister for Intelligence Agencies.

Meridor described the Israeli-Australian relationship as "strong, deep and broad", which would endure the expulsion because it was in the interests of both countries to do so.

But the media has not been so positive. Writing in Haaretz, columnist Amir Oren says it took "a special talent" to damage the relationship between Israel and Australia.

"Lately, there have not been any top-tier Australian politicians who were not supportive of Israel," Oren writes.

"It thus requires special talent to transform Australia into a country that feels obligated to take steps against Israel. Yet one person in Israel has that talent. And this time, it is not Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman.

"The person who managed to get Israel in trouble with Australia, Britain and the other embittered countries is the head of Mossad, Meir Dagan.

"But what does Dagan care about Rudd, Smith or [David] Irvine? So long as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in his pocket, the world can go to hell.

"And if it does not do so on its own, Dagan will show it how."

Back in Canberra the affair and the government's handling of the it triggered angry claims by deputy opposition leader Julie Bishop that Australian intelligence agencies had previously used forged passports.

Her claims follow confidential security briefings by ASIO and the AFP given prior to Smith's ministerial statement on the Mossad expulsion. It sparked a sharp rebuke from the Foreign Minister. In parliament yesterday, Smith said the remarks show Bishop can not be trusted.

But they also failed to differentiate a key Smith grievance: that the Israeli actions constituted identity theft of innocent Australian citizens rather than forgery.

The Rudd government's response to the Israeli actions has been measured and considered, says Hugh White, head of the Australian National University's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre.

"The fact the Israelis got caught out in such a flagrant misuse of our passports made it impossible for the government not to respond in some way. I think the government's response in this has been entirely reasonable," White says.

"The biggest mystery in this remains the fact the Israelis put themselves in this position by using passports in such a flagrant way. That, and the fact they were prepared to do it all on video, seemed to make the fact it was all going to come unstuck inevitable."

Regardless, the issue has proved fertile ground for the opposition after the powerful Jewish lobby expressed disappointment at the government's decision to expel the embassy's Mossad agent.

Earlier, Bishop accused Rudd of exploiting the affair to curry favour with Arab governments in order to enhance prospects of a UN Security Council seat,

claims the government strongly rejected.

At a press conference, Smith declined to answer whether Australian national intelligence agencies use forged passports.

" I can say with my hand well and truly firmly clasped on my heart that when it comes to intelligence matters, when it comes to operational matters, consistent with the long-standing tradition of all Australian governments, I'm never drawn on our intelligence community or the intelligence agency for which I have formal ministerial responsibility, ASIS."

While he expects a temporary "cooling off" in intelligence co-operation with Israel, Canberra's Middle East diplomacy remains unchanged.

Asked if the issue would change attitudes towards Israel at the UN, Smith said: "Absolutely not. And I have to say that since the announcement of the AFP investigation until now there have been a couple of matters with respect to Israel, either before the General Assembly or in respect of Middle East peace talks, which people have tried to look through this prism in terms of the Australian government's approach and response.

"Can I just say that we have not allowed this issue to disturb in any way our policy approach to Israel, our policy approach to Middle East peace matters and we will not allow that to occur.

"So far as UN resolutions on the Middle East are concerned, we consider these annually on a case by case basis, within a well understood policy framework about whether the resolutions advance, for example, the furtherance of peace in the Middle East.

"So we have not allowed this matter to disturb the fundamental basis of our approach to the Middle East and nor will we."

Additional reporting: Middle East correspondent John Lyons.